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Opinions can not be trusted

August 14th 2009 04:28
surveys

Richard Smith, a British doctor and director of the Ovations program which fights chronic disease in the developing world, recently had breakfast in Bangladesh with an unnamed economics professor from Harvard University.

The conversation during the meal was hardly the mundane breakfast chat of the common man. What these two higher minds chose to discuss was the degree to which the findings of most scientific surveys around the world each year can be trusted.


The conversation started like this. "Economists pay no attention to what people say, only to what they do." It was the Harvard economics professor speaking, so he should know what he is talking about.

Dr Smith responded that he tended to agree. After all, he said, we all know that there is a big gap between what people say and what they do. "Consequently I’ve always been wary of surveys. The more I think about it, however, the more I think that we should ignore all surveys. Life is too short."

One can only wonder if these two venerable men had any idea what a dagger they were plunging into the heart of bloggers everywhere, for whom the results of surveys are a constant and rich source of material.

Whose opinion are we to trust now?




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Comments
6 Comments. [ Add A Comment ]

Comment by RubySoho

August 14th 2009 10:55
Meh. Two academics pooh pooh surveys; do they represent less than 1% of all academics? If so, you know what to do.

Comment by Morgan Bell

August 14th 2009 16:50
surveys about shopping habits are always stupid, like why ask how often a person buys a magazine or a movie ticket, just get the turnover stats from the cinema or the circulation from the publisher

business people are always trying to over-analyse demographics and make predictions on consumer trends

however i dont consider these to be "opinion polls" as they are not polling peoples opinions, they are polling peoples perceptions on what they spend and where they spend it and what they would like to spend in future

most people dont keep spreadsheets and receipts of every minor expenditure, its much more useful going to the person selling and asking them to break down their income

but i guess theres always going to be some nerd who likes to know that grandma is more likely to buy and icecream than popcorn at the matinee

Comment by Mr Nice Guy

August 14th 2009 20:53
Survey - smervey!

There's usually some advocacy agenda behind most.

It's been a great PR smoke and mirrors act for years in the most part. Get a PR agency to put out a spurious survey - dress it up as news - and the hound come barking.

Take most with a grain of salt I say and do your homework when it comes to a. who financed the survey and b. what product, service or agenda that group has.

Nice topic.

Comment by Chris Champion

August 15th 2009 20:50
Hi Ruby, Morgan, MNG,

Thank you for your responses. They have been collated and analysed,and will now be ignored

Comment by Someone

August 16th 2009 00:21
You can do an entire uni degree on survey writing. I did a couple of classes... interesting stuff. They try and mitigate the effect of bias... but even they admit it doesn't really work.

Comment by Chris Champion

August 16th 2009 00:49
Hi Someone,

From the horse's mouth! Great comment, thanks. It supports the professor's statement, "Economists pay no attention to what people say, only to what they do." I found that very interesting - it's the reason I wrote the post.

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