Technology asset bubble 2
April 22nd 1999 08:20
I lived in Hong Kong for 16 years until 2007. In 1998 and 1999 I wrote a series of political and social commentaries for a quirky institutional newsletter - quirky in that it was intended to be as much contentious, offbeat and humorous as it was informative. I was working as an editor, and I wrote the articles under the pseudonym Red Inque. I post them here for anyone interested in a look at life in Asia at the time, and in Hong Kong just after its return to Chinese sovereignty.
The Sausage or the pillow case?
NASDAQ has taken a tumble, the Internet stock bubble appears to have burst, and the question everyone is asking me, of course, is how is your sister’s Sausage? My sister is the only person in our family with Great Expectations because she works at Goldman Sachs and will become fabulously wealthy if they ever get their listing off the ground and onto the board. Goldman, which doesn’t rely on Asian operations, also paid handsome bonuses at the end of last year so you can see that my beloved little sis has the golden touch at the moment. Wretched child.
Perhaps, knowing that, I should have jumped as soon as she told me about her Sausage. She bought a bundle of this Australian Web design software company at A60 cents or so at the end of March. Two weeks later they were A$1.64. Now they are tumbling again, of course, and my sister has had to change her order to a smaller BMW. It’s hard not to smirk.
If I sound bitter about the fact that everyone except me seems to have been in Internet stocks and made packets of money, then you are misreading me. I am not bitter at all. It’s just that it’s so damn, rotten, stinking, miasmically, putrefaciently unfair.
I speak from harsh experience. The last time I accepted advice and plunged in was 1996 when QPL (0243.HK) was HK$4.50 and a friend said the share price would rise ahead of the announcement of much stronger than expected profits. I bought and away we went on the ride of my life. The share was at $9 the day the profit – indeed fat and above expectations – was announced. Don’t sell, said my friend, because it will continue to rise on fundamentals. I waited and waited and finally baled out at $3.75.
Back in 1996 I told a friend about QPL and he got in at about HK$5. He didn’t sell for a profit either. In fact, he still held his a month ago when QPL hit HK10 cents. At that stage an esteemed colleague and technology analyst cried, “Enough is enough,” and declared the stock a BUY. “Utter piffle,” I replied (under my breath, because she was also my boss). Now they are 90 cents. The only consolations in my misery are that my friend didn’t average down and my boss didn’t heed her own advice.
I have a close friend in San Francisco who bought into Yahoo! two weeks ago. “I’m tired of people forecasting the end of the bull run, Yahoo! is the perfect exposure to Internet stocks, and I just love that cute exclamation mark,” was her reasoning. This friend is no small punter. She has a serious portfolio managed by her ex-husband (they were forced apart by the lack of tolerance in San Francisco for heterosexual relationships – they remain friends but they meet in secret).
I got goosebumps when she told me she was planning to put the equivalent of a few months’ income into Yahoo! I tried to imagine doing it myself, and immediately realised I’d have trouble sleeping. I mean, the very word bubble says it all. I can’t imagine placing large sums of money in something so ephemeral. Call me conservative if you will, but I’d much rather keep my money somewhere very safe. Which is why it’s in my pillow case.
And now the bubble is said to have burst. I’m not sure if Yahoo!’s price has tumbled. I’m not even sure whether the possessive apostrophe should come before or after the exclamation mark. But I hope she’s alright. I hope she hasn’t lost too much. I told her she should have bought Sausage.
The pig, if I am not mistaken, supplies us sausage, ham and bacon. Let others say his heart is big – I call it stupid of the pig. -- Ogden Nash
NASDAQ has taken a tumble, the Internet stock bubble appears to have burst, and the question everyone is asking me, of course, is how is your sister’s Sausage? My sister is the only person in our family with Great Expectations because she works at Goldman Sachs and will become fabulously wealthy if they ever get their listing off the ground and onto the board. Goldman, which doesn’t rely on Asian operations, also paid handsome bonuses at the end of last year so you can see that my beloved little sis has the golden touch at the moment. Wretched child.
Perhaps, knowing that, I should have jumped as soon as she told me about her Sausage. She bought a bundle of this Australian Web design software company at A60 cents or so at the end of March. Two weeks later they were A$1.64. Now they are tumbling again, of course, and my sister has had to change her order to a smaller BMW. It’s hard not to smirk.
If I sound bitter about the fact that everyone except me seems to have been in Internet stocks and made packets of money, then you are misreading me. I am not bitter at all. It’s just that it’s so damn, rotten, stinking, miasmically, putrefaciently unfair.
I speak from harsh experience. The last time I accepted advice and plunged in was 1996 when QPL (0243.HK) was HK$4.50 and a friend said the share price would rise ahead of the announcement of much stronger than expected profits. I bought and away we went on the ride of my life. The share was at $9 the day the profit – indeed fat and above expectations – was announced. Don’t sell, said my friend, because it will continue to rise on fundamentals. I waited and waited and finally baled out at $3.75.
Back in 1996 I told a friend about QPL and he got in at about HK$5. He didn’t sell for a profit either. In fact, he still held his a month ago when QPL hit HK10 cents. At that stage an esteemed colleague and technology analyst cried, “Enough is enough,” and declared the stock a BUY. “Utter piffle,” I replied (under my breath, because she was also my boss). Now they are 90 cents. The only consolations in my misery are that my friend didn’t average down and my boss didn’t heed her own advice.
I have a close friend in San Francisco who bought into Yahoo! two weeks ago. “I’m tired of people forecasting the end of the bull run, Yahoo! is the perfect exposure to Internet stocks, and I just love that cute exclamation mark,” was her reasoning. This friend is no small punter. She has a serious portfolio managed by her ex-husband (they were forced apart by the lack of tolerance in San Francisco for heterosexual relationships – they remain friends but they meet in secret).
I got goosebumps when she told me she was planning to put the equivalent of a few months’ income into Yahoo! I tried to imagine doing it myself, and immediately realised I’d have trouble sleeping. I mean, the very word bubble says it all. I can’t imagine placing large sums of money in something so ephemeral. Call me conservative if you will, but I’d much rather keep my money somewhere very safe. Which is why it’s in my pillow case.
And now the bubble is said to have burst. I’m not sure if Yahoo!’s price has tumbled. I’m not even sure whether the possessive apostrophe should come before or after the exclamation mark. But I hope she’s alright. I hope she hasn’t lost too much. I told her she should have bought Sausage.
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