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Consumer confidence

April 27th 1999 08:50
I lived in Hong Kong for 16 years until 2007. In 1998 and 1999 I wrote a series of political and social commentaries for a quirky institutional newsletter - quirky in that it was intended to be as much contentious, offbeat and humorous as it was informative. I was working as an editor, and I wrote the articles under the pseudonym Red Inque. I post them here for anyone interested in a look at life in Asia at the time, and in Hong Kong just after its return to Chinese sovereignty.

Tell me Dobkins: How long have you been with us – not counting today? -- David Frost (The Sack and How to Give It)


Posting a recovery

Hong Kong’s most important economic and business confidence indicator hit 70 on Saturday. We are referring, of course, to the number of pages of job advertisements in The South China Morning Post. Back in the good old days, before the Great Asian Myocardial Infarction, the SCMP’s Saturday job ads ran in the high 100s, and for a while there in 1997 it was regularly more than 200 and needed seven folds to present.

Those were the days. The Hong Kong Government used to produce underemployment figures, by sector. The big property developers would line up outside the Legco Building, on their knees, to deliver petitions pleading for more construction workers to be allowed in. There were shortages of people in every white collar area. Accountants and lawyers and analysts would command astronomical wages, and if they didn’t like their job they could always find another, probably at double the wage, in the following Saturday’s Post.

At the time, The South China Morning Post was the most profitable newspaper in the world. Red Inque worked there occasionally, doing casual editing shifts in the business section. One evening the display advertising department rang three times and increased the size of the next day’s section. It had been huge to start. By the end it ran to 24 pages, the most ever. Around 1am, as the paper was being put to bed, the Business Editor announced to the desk that the business section of this one edition of the newspaper was worth HK$17m in advertising revenue. It was a record. We filed out and went to the pub, where we still had to buy our own beer.


But HK$17m was peanuts compared to what those Saturday display ads brought in. Back then, there was a huge picture of the front page of the SCMP splashed on an advertising billboard at the Star Ferry terminal. In the top right corner of the front page, the figure 228 was clearly visible, this being the number of pages of jobs ads that day.

We have no idea how much money 228 pages of job ads represents, but we know it is a lot more than 48 pages, which is what the SCMP got down to a couple of months ago. They stopped putting the number on the front page of the Saturday edition (and about the same time the Star Ferry billboard ad was taken down), but we would check out of interest. It was a weekly reality dose.

And now it is rising again. We cracked the 60 level a couple of weeks ago, and we had 70 on Saturday. The number is even back on the front page, the paper proudly showing how it is going up. We are referring, of course, to confidence.
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Bad press

December 7th 1998 03:16
I lived in Hong Kong for 16 years until 2007. In 1998 and 1999 I wrote a series of political, investment and social commentary articles for a quirky institutional newsletter - quirky in that it was intended to be as much contentious, offbeat and humorous as it was informative. I was working as an editor at the time, and I wrote the articles under the pseudonym Red Inque. I post them here for anyone interested in a look at life in Asia at the time, especially in Hong Kong just after its return to Chinese sovereignty.

Accuracy to a newspaper is what virtue is to a lady; but a newspaper can always print a retraction.-- Adlai Stevenson


Hung, drawn and syndicated

One must occasionally feel sorry for investment analysts. We are not referring here to the fact that they are likely to lose their jobs every cyclical downturn, nor that they feel unappreciated and misunderstood by sales people. No, we’re referring to that other predatory breed, the great opinionated, stentorian collection of human beings known as journalists.

There is in Hong Kong an economist of the senior and experienced variety who made a call a while back that the Hong Kong dollar peg would go. He was not alone in this call, but he was pretty much alone in nominating that the peg would go by a certain, not-too-distant date. This is sticking out one’s neck a very long way indeed.

There is in Hong Kong a newspaper columnist of the financial variety whose brief, one assumes, is to be witty and entertaining on a daily basis. A professional journalist can spot an extended neck three time zones away. So Mr Columnist rang Mr Economist and the ensuing conversation, according to the Hong Kong grapevine, could be described as less than gracious on one end and less than grateful on the other.

The result has been a series of references to the economist’s peg call in the newspaper column, each reference ever more gleefully crowing that the pressure on the peg was easing and counting down the days until it was proven that he was wrong, wrong, wrong. To the relief of many, that day was last Friday, and perhaps we’ll hear no more of it.

Red Inque has a friend who is an economist (not the same person) who a year ago made a major call that the renminbi would be devalued. In the end, he was wrong too, and if he has not been lampooned for it, it is probably because he very rarely talks to journalists, and then only to those he trusts. This is the result of bitter experience. Indeed, there are many investment banks which have a blanket ban on their analysts talking to the press.

In a perfect world, journalists would be fair and knowledgeable arbiters and what makes it into newspapers would be an objective reflection of the credibility of investment calls and research analysis. Sometimes it even works that way. But not in the incident which finished last Friday with a final blast of ridicule on one side and a frigid silence on the other. The reputation of the economist who was merely brave enough to make a big prediction has undoubtedly been tarnished, which is unfair. Also tarnished is the reputation of journalism, which has once more proved that people in ivory towers shouldn’t throw stones.
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