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Timor outrage

September 10th 1999 08:33
I lived in Hong Kong for 16 years until 2007. In 1998 and 1999 I wrote a series of political and social commentaries for a quirky institutional newsletter - quirky in that it was intended to be as much contentious, offbeat and humorous as it was informative. I was working as an editor, and I wrote the articles under the pseudonym Red Inque. I post them here for anyone interested in a look at life in Asia at the time, and in Hong Kong just after its return to Chinese sovereignty.

People everywhere confuse what they read in newspapers with news. -- A.J. Liebling


Asia's big bully

Around about the time that NATO and its mates nominated themselves arbiters of international humanitarian integrity and decided to bomb the stuffing out of Kosovo, an email circled the world faster than you can say Internet pointing out that not one military action under­taken by the United States since the end of World War II has resulted in a more human­itarian or more democratic gov­ern­ment being put in place. That’s a lot of military action for a zero batting average.

Having the biggest pea-shooter on the block does not guarantee sagacity in determining the distance between detente and detonate. Instead, it attracts appelations such as bully, and refer­ences to right by might.

The big guns, so to speak, may yet get a score on the board from Kosovo. The dust is still to settle, but if dis­placed Albanians return in large numbers, and if they find a better place, it will be a victoy of sorts. Perhaps they already have in the minds of many people for whom stark television images of Yugoslav-inflicted human misery are fresh. And this gives rise to an interesting question – if military intervention in Yugoslavia can be tolerat­ed, does this spell a new philosophy, an increased inclination to send troops across sovereign borders in the name of justice?


The question attaches itself to the new world centre of outrage, East Timor. Can there be any argument that the situation in East Timor features the same brutal injustices as that in Kosovo? No. Will the UN or NATO or ANZUS ride in on white chargers to redress the wrong and punish the wrongdoers? No. Not this time.

Why? Because Western politicians understand clearly what their populations may not – that Indonesia is much bigger than Serbia. Yugoslavia is in Europe’s backyard, and one of the smaller fish therein. Indonesia is in Asia’s front yard, and the fifth-most populous nation on earth.

Australia, which has been super-sensitive and very outspoken about things Timorese ever since several Aust­ralian journalists were murdered there by Indonesian troops in the 1970s, has strongly condemned Indonesia, but probably doesn’t have big enough pea-shooters to go in alone.
So far the only NATO power to shake a fist is France, which also will not go in alone.
The Americans won’t go in. As Australian Foreign Minister Alexander Downer colourfully put it, they appear all “Kosovo-ed out”. The same thing can be said for the Brits.

And anybody who does go in can bank on fierce opposition from China and probably Russia, who have very big pea-shoorters of their own.

Of course, there is another option – economic sanctions. Iraq and Cuba may be proof that this doesn’t work, but at least America has failed fewer times this way than by dropping bombs.
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Government spending

August 11th 1999 11:02
I lived in Hong Kong for 16 years until 2007. In 1998 and 1999 I wrote a series of political and social commentaries for a quirky institutional newsletter - quirky in that it was intended to be as much contentious, offbeat and humorous as it was informative. I was working as an editor, and I wrote the articles under the pseudonym Red Inque. I post them here for anyone interested in a look at life in Asia at the time, and in Hong Kong just after its return to Chinese sovereignty.

If economists could manage to get themselves thought of as humble, competent people, on a level with dentists, that would be splendid! -- John Maynard Keynes

A bureacrat and his money

If someone could explain the economic principles behind Malaysian government spending at the moment, please call me.

According to axioms expound­ed at the London School of Economics, a pub next to which I frequented for many years, the way out of a recession is to spend money. Govern­ments need to lead the way by allocating more funding for highways, technology parks and public toilet blocks.

So far so good, because that in fact is just what the Malaysian government has done, ladelling sacks-full of capital into the coffers of all government depart­ments and telling them to throw it about quick smart.

Which is exactly what they are not do­ing.

Official figures show that the govern­ment spent just 5.3% of its devel­op­ment expenditure allocation in 1Q99. Put another way, all levels of government have been given RM16bn to play with in 1999. In the first three months, they spent just RM900m of it.

Some may point to the first quarter traditionally being a slow one for spend­ing, but 1Q99 spending was 25.6% less than 1Q98 spending. Meanwhile, the economy contracted 1.3% in the quarter.

This is not new news, of course. We first wrote about it in these columns in mid-May. In case you missed it, Prime Minister Mahathir was reportedly ‘upset’ with the bureaucrats. He even called them tight-fisted. As far as an excuse for the crazy situation, he blamed ‘red tape’.
He didn’t mention that much of the government spending that did actually occur in the first quarter was ‘emoluments’ – a series of one-off cash payments to public servants and other groups which of course have nothing to do with the forthcoming national election.
We expect GNP growth of 2.7% in 2Q99, followed by 6.1% and 5.8% in the third and fourth quarters, giving 3.3% for the full year. It’s a rosy scenario far removed from the gloom of 12 months ago. And it will be achieved despite, rather than because of, goverment spend­ing.
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Chinese embassy bombing

May 18th 1999 09:54
I lived in Hong Kong for 16 years until 2007. In 1998 and 1999 I wrote a series of political and social commentaries for a quirky institutional newsletter - quirky in that it was intended to be as much contentious, offbeat and humorous as it was informative. I was working as an editor, and I wrote the articles under the pseudonym Red Inque. I post them here for anyone interested in a look at life in Asia at the time, and in Hong Kong just after its return to Chinese sovereignty.


Major cities in China have seen their biggest and angriest demonstrations for years in response to the destruction by Nato bombs of the Chinese embassy in Belgrade with the loss of four lives. Hundreds of students chanting anti-American and anti-Nato slogans marched in Shanghai, Chengdu and Guanghzou. In Beijing about 100,000 people invaded the embassy district, massing on streets littered with rocks and broken bottles from earlier protests. -- British Broadcasting Corporation, May 9, 1999

After two days of varied official accounts, the least credible explanation for Friday night's NATO bombing of the Chinese embassy in Belgrade is that it was a pure accident. On Sunday, a US official in Washington told news agencies that the CIA had simply supplied inaccurate information, wrongly identifying the embassy as a Yugoslav weapons warehouse. It was the fourth version of events produced within several hours. -- www.wsws.org, May 10, 1999

Chinese protests Belgrade embassy bombing
A personal message for President Clinton in 1999 after the NATO bombing of the Chinese embassy in Belgrade resulted in four dead
Picture: BBC

A few sage words for President Pickle

US President Bill Clinton called a top secret meeting in the White House steam room late last week where he told the assembled interns that he was gravely concerned at the recent lack of com­mentary from Red Inque.

Sorry about that, Bill. We’ve been very busy crying over the rise and rise of the stock market, which we missed, but we will now turn our attention to international affairs.

The leader of the world’s most power­ful nation has got himself into a pickle. Again. Although it is not clear at this stage whether public opinion rates a mention in Oval Office dialogue, we would point out that just about nobody any longer has a good word to say about American cartography.

We’re sorry to have to break this to you, Bill, but the people here in China are pretty upset with you. Some of them weren’t quite convinced by your explan­ation, and pictures of you writing a letter of apology didn’t really compete with pictures of the Chinese embassy dead arriving back home.

Meanwhile, you‘ve thrown the worms amongst Pandora’s pigeons when it comes to China’s entry to the WTO. It’s almost funny really – there are powerful factions within China lobbying both for and against WTO membership, and America’s double-bogey bombing has given both of them ammunition, so to speak. The conservatives in Beijing have become increasingly strident in their claims that China is selling its interests short in pushing for early WTO entry. Their outbursts are more often than not directed at Moftec, the senior govern­ment trade organisation which has overall responsibility for WTO negotiat­ions. It was perhaps therefore not surpris­ing that Moftec was amongst the first to get stuck into Nato, scoring some patriotic brownie points and thereby eas­ing the pressure of criticism.

We see you nodding. They might be burning your picture, Bill, but as a fellow professional we’re sure you respect a nifty bit of political dualism.

Try not to feel too guilty, but another consequence of your crappy mappies is that people around here are suddenly very nervous about China stocks. The biggest concern is the myriad companies which will receive no direct benefits from WTO entry but whose prices have risen recently on generally bullish WTO trading sentiment.

We are telling people, however, that these should not be confused with major players whose current share prices are well justified by their fundamentals, about which we remain positive and which represent good buying value on current weakness. These stocks include COSCO Pacific, China Mer­chants, Shanghai Ind­ustrial, Beijing Enter­prises, Zhejiang Expressway and Shen­zhen Expressway.

We suggest you target some of these, Bill. You can’t miss.
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Indonesia’s lonely battle

November 16th 1998 02:53
Expendable pawns and few mates

I lived in Hong Kong for 16 years until 2007. In 1998 and 1999 I wrote a series of political, investment and social commentaries for a quirky institutional newsletter - quirky in that it was intended to be as much contentious, offbeat and humorous as it was informative. I was working as an editor, and I wrote the articles under the pseudonym Red Inque. I post them here for anyone interested in a look at life in Asia at the time, especially in Hong Kong just after its return to Chinese sovereignty.
[ Click here to read more ]
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